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| Analysis of Changes in The Level of Social Restrictions Implemented by The Government of Indonesia with The Case Studies in East Java Province to Reduce The Spread of Covid-19
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Alexander Wijayanto, Debora Sandra, Regita Sania Ardhia Buamona, Fitria Halimatuzzahro', Inayah Ulfah, M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto
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Abstract:
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic has hit Indonesia since March 2020. East Java Province contributed the fourth-highest number of patients from the start of the pandemic to February 2022. To combat the spread of the virus, the Indonesian government started to implement four-level Community Activity Restrictions or abbreviated as PPKM on July 26, 2021. According to the policy, the government will continue to enforce PPKM as long as the pandemic is still ongoing. To determine the level of PPKM in a region, conducting a study in that region is necessary and one way to do that is by doing an epidemiological study based on a statistical approach. Stochastic models based on the Markov Chain can be used as a statistical approach. This approach has the advantage that it can be used in modeling uncertain conditions based on certain states. The data used in this study is PPKM level shift every 1 - 2 weeks from 38 regencies and cities in East Java Province for the period July 26 - November 29, 2021. The data is sourced from the Instruction of the Minister of Home Affairs (Inmendagri). The results obtained are that currently PPKM level one has the highest probability of occurring in a sustainable manner, while level four has the lowest probability of occurring in East Java. The results of this study can be used as information for the people of East Java Province in preparing various adjustments to activities at the PPKM level set by the government.
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