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| Modeling Gender Inequality Index (GII) in Nusa Tenggara Using A Multivariate Adaptive Approach Regression Splines
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Nurul Izzah, Ardi Kurniawan, Elly Ana
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Abstract:
Gender inequality is one of the compelling issues that has been extensively discussed over the past few decades. In Indonesia, societal perception of women tends to relegate them to a secondary status. This limitation constrains women's opportunities and benefits in development. Efforts and development programs are evaluated through a gender lens using the Gender Inequality Index (GII). In the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), gender issues are integrated into Goal 5, aiming for gender equality and empowerment of all women and girls. This goal aligns with the fact that Indonesia has the highest GII among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) due to gender disparities across its regions. According to data published by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) (2021), the province with the highest GII is West Nusa Tenggara at 53.1%. The objective of this study is to describe and model the GII in the province of Nusa Tenggara, as well as interpret the results of the best model obtained. The method employed is a nonparametric regression approach, specifically Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS). The research findings indicate that the best model obtained consists of a combination of 14 basis functions, a maximum of 2 interactions, and a minimum of 1 observation between knots. From this model, the predictor variables most influential on the response variable, ranked by importance, are Women's Participation in Parliament, Proportion of Women Ever Married aged 15-49 Years who Gave Birth to their First Live Child at Under 20 Years Old, Labor Force Participation Rate, Years of Schooling Expectancy, and Per Capita Expenditure. The best MARS model yields a Generalized Cross Validation value of 0.002; R^2 of 0.945, and Mean Square Error of 0.000613. It is hoped that these research findings will contribute to efforts to reduce gender inequality in the province of Nusa Tenggara and serve as a basis for the development of more effective policies in achieving gender equality..
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