Title: Impact of The Russian-Ukraine Conflict on Nigeria's Crude Oil Revenues Performance
Authors: Ebiloma Ileanwa& Elaigwu Moses Okeme Adejoh
Volume: 9
Issue: 4
Pages: 536-542
Publication Date: 2025/04/28
Abstract:
This study examines the impact of the Russian-Ukraine War on Nigeria's crude oil revenue performance. It utilizes secondary data sourced from the 2021 and 2022 appropriation bills, as well as oil revenue performance reports from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). These datasets cover a year before and a year into the escalation of the conflict. A paired sample t-test was employed to analyze the data and test the hypotheses. The study has both theoretical and practical implications. It highlights the importance of adapting budgetary benchmarks to reflect global realities and recommends urgent policy attention to internal revenue leakages. Improving the regulatory environment, particularly through the review and enforcement of oil exploration and mining licenses, is essential for enhancing oil production and maximizing revenue gains from favorable international conditions. The results reveal that the Russian-Ukraine conflict has had a positive and statistically significant effect on Nigeria's oil revenue growth between 2021 and 2022. Despite this, actual revenue in 2022 fell slightly short of the budgetary projections, indicating that while global events can enhance oil revenue potential, domestic challenges such as oil theft and production inefficiencies remain key obstacles. In conclusion, the study recommends that the Nigerian government strengthen mechanisms to combat oil theft, implement realistic budgeting frameworks, and invest in long-overdue reforms within the oil sector to fully capitalize on external economic opportunities.