Title: The Dual Role of Non-Renewable Efficiency and Renewable Energy in Africa's Environmental Sustainability: A Load Capacity Factor Analysis of Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, and South Africa
Authors: Emmanuel Yusuf Attah Ferdinand Ojonimi Edibo Happiness Obi-Anike Sunday Paul Etuh
Volume: 9
Issue: 5
Pages: 473-481
Publication Date: 2025/05/28
Abstract:
This study examines the dual role of non-renewable energy efficiency and renewable energy adoption in advancing environmental sustainability across four African economies-Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, and South Africa-using the Load Capacity Factor (LCF) framework. Combining panel data econometrics (2000-2022), geospatial analysis, and policy evaluation, we find that renewable energy adoption drives significant LCF improvements, with a 1% increase in renewable share boosting LCF by 0.12 points (p < 0.01). Fossil fuel efficiency gains, while beneficial, prove half as effective. Morocco's integrated solar strategy (+10.2% LCF) and Kenya's geothermal expansion (+4.7% LCF) demonstrate how targeted renewable investments enhance sustainability, whereas Nigeria's governance failures (-15.0% LCF) and South Africa's coal dependence (-8.9% LCF) reveal institutional and technological lock-in challenges. Crucially, policy quality emerges as a decisive factor: strong governance regimes triple renewable energy's impact compared to weak ones. Urbanization pressures offset 30% of renewable gains, highlighting the need for complementary sustainable urban planning. The study challenges conventional transition models by showing no automatic LCF recovery at higher income levels-unlike Asian experiences-emphasizing Africa's need for proactive, context-sensitive policies. It was recommended among others that governments must implement enforceable renewable energy policies with clear accountability mechanisms. Moreso, energy transitions should be systematically integrated with sustainable urban development strategies to mitigate ecological pressures.