Title: Beyond the Seasons: A Case Study of Kenya's Agricultural Transformation and Its Implications for African Food Security
Authors: Arinaitwe Julius
Musiimenta Nancy
Volume: 10
Issue: 3
Pages: 360-368
Publication Date: 2026/03/28
Abstract:
Food insecurity persists across sub-Saharan Africa despite decades of agricultural development investment, and Kenya - as a documented site of significant agricultural transformation presents a critical case for understanding the conditions under which transformation translates into genuine household food security improvements. This study, titled Beyond the Seasons, employed a mixed-methods, embedded case study design to examine the nature, drivers, and food security implications of Kenya's agricultural transformation across four purposively selected agroecological zones, including humid highland, semi-arid lowland, irrigated dryland, and coastal transitional areas. A multi-stage stratified random sampling procedure yielded a primary sample of 840 smallholder farming households, supplemented by 48 key informant interviews and eight focus group discussions with agricultural stakeholders. Data were analysed using a three-tier statistical framework comprising univariate descriptive analysis, bivariate inferential tests, and Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) using AMOS 23.0. Descriptive results revealed that only 31.4 percent of sampled households were food secure under the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale, while mean crop yields of 1,847 kg/ha remained substantially below agronomic potential, and dietary diversity scores indicated persistently narrow household diets. Bivariate analyses demonstrated significant associations between all five transformation interventions improved seed adoption, irrigation access, cooperative membership, mobile market platform use, and certified fertiliser use and food security status, with irrigation exhibiting the strongest association (Cramér's V = 0.325) and female-headed and ASAL-zone households significantly overrepresented among food-insecure respondents. The SEM, which achieved excellent model fit (CFI = 0.963; RMSEA = 0.048), confirmed that technology adoption (? = 0.341), market integration (? = 0.298), agricultural transformation intensity (? = 0.312), and institutional mediation (? = 0.287) each exerted significant direct effects on household food security, while bootstrapped mediation analyses confirmed significant indirect pathways through institutional and market structures. ASAL zone location (? = ?0.221) and female household headship (? = ?0.148) imposed significant structural penalties on food security outcomes, highlighting critical equity dimensions of transformation. The study concludes that Kenya's agricultural transformation has generated real but unevenly distributed food security gains, mediated substantially by institutional quality, market access, and equity conditions, and recommends integrated multi-component delivery models, targeted investments for marginalised geographies and gender groups, and strengthened institutional infrastructure as the foundational priorities for translating agricultural transformation into universal food security across sub-Saharan Africa.