Title: The importance of the global oil industry for the economies of commodity-based countries
Authors: Ammar Neamah Awdah
Volume: 10
Issue: 3
Pages: 61-66
Publication Date: 2026/03/28
Abstract:
The oil industry acts as a fundamental driver of macroeconomic dynamics in commodity-based countries. However, this dependence highlights the sensitivity of economic indicators and development dynamics of countries to the state of the oil market, related geopolitical events, and technological advances that may affect the profitability of oil production and processing. The purpose of this article is to use advanced econometric modelling tools to study the impact of the global oil industry on the economies of commodity-based countries. In the course of the study, a multifactor autoregressive distributed lag model was proposed, the choice of which is due to the specifics of the macroeconomic series of commodity-based countries. The results of econometric modelling for the period 2004-2024, based on data from key oil-exporting countries, revealed a rigid hierarchy of development factors, where the physical expansion of the sector and the creation of production capacity have a significantly more powerful multiplier effect on GDP dynamics than volatile price fluctuations on world markets.