Title: A High-Stakes Crisis: Uganda's Position Among Africa's Top Gambling Nations and the Multifaceted Threat to Youth Development
Authors: Dr. Arinaitwe Julius, Musimenta Nancy
Volume: 10
Issue: 4
Pages: 341-348
Publication Date: 2026/04/28
Abstract:
CTBackground: Uganda has emerged as one of Africa's most active gambling markets, with gambling prevalence among youth estimated at 67.5% in urban centres. The rapid proliferation of mobile betting platforms combined with inadequate regulatory enforcement has created conditions under which adolescents and young adults are being disproportionately exposed to gambling-related harms, including academic failure and psychological distress. Objectives: This study examined the prevalence and sociodemographic determinants of youth gambling in Uganda, investigated the association between gambling participation and youth development outcomes including academic performance and mental health, and explored the structural pathways through which gambling intensity mediates broader developmental harm. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 412 youth aged 12-24 years across three urban districts of Uganda (Kampala, Wakiso, and Mukono) using stratified random sampling. Data were collected through structured interviewer-administered questionnaires. Univariate descriptive statistics characterised the sample, bivariate analysis (chi-square tests and independent samples t-tests) identified significant associative factors, binary logistic regression determined independent predictors of gambling participation, and Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) explored causal pathways linking gambling intensity to academic decline and mental health outcomes. Results: The prevalence of gambling among youth was 67.5%. Problem gambling (PGSI ? 8) was identified in 38.4% of gamblers. Peer influence (OR=4.14; 95% CI: 2.73-6.28), older age (OR=3.25), male gender (OR=2.39), and low household income (OR=2.14) were the strongest predictors. SEM results confirmed that gambling intensity significantly predicted both academic decline (?=0.61, p<0.001) and deteriorating mental health (?=0.54, p<0.001), with fit indices indicating excellent model fit (CFI=0.962, RMSEA=0.048). Conclusion: Gambling among Ugandan youth constitutes a serious public health crisis with quantifiable, multidimensional threats to youth development. Urgent policy interventions targeting peer-mediated gambling culture, mobile platform regulation, and school-based mental health support are warranted. These findings provide an evidence base for Uganda's National Lotteries and Gaming Regulatory Board and the Ministry of Education and Sports to coordinate prevention strategies.