Title: Sustainable Leadership, Digital Transformation, and Organisational Resilience in Emerging Markets: A Moderated Serial Mediation Model
Authors: Leonard Achile Ogwuche
Sunday Musa Onalo
Samuel Unekwu Elias
Emmanuel Yusuf Attah
Volume: 10
Issue: 5
Pages: 417-431
Publication Date: 2026/05/28
Abstract:
Digital transformation has become a strategic imperative for organisations seeking resilience in volatile emerging markets. However, the mechanisms through which digital transformation enhances organisational resilience remain underexplored, particularly the roles of employee agility and sustainable leadership. This study investigates the mediating role of employee agility and the moderating role of institutional support in the relationship between sustainable leadership, digital transformation, and organisational resilience. Drawing on dynamic capabilities theory, social exchange theory, and institutional theory, we propose a moderated serial mediation model. Using a time-lagged, multi-source survey design, we collected data from 562 employees and 112 managers across 124 manufacturing and service firms in Nigeria, Ghana, and Kenya. Structural equation modelling (SEM) and hierarchical linear modelling (HLM) were employed to test the hypotheses. Results indicate that sustainable leadership positively influences digital transformation (? = 0.48, p < 0.001) and organisational resilience (? = 0.39, p < 0.001). Digital transformation partially mediates the relationship between sustainable leadership and resilience (indirect effect = 0.16, 95% CI [0.10, 0.23]). Employee agility mediates the digital transformation-resilience link (indirect effect = 0.21, 95% CI [0.14, 0.29]). Institutional support significantly moderates the relationship between digital transformation and employee agility (? = 0.24, p = 0.001), and the moderated mediation index is significant (index = 0.08, SE = 0.02). The findings suggest that sustainable leadership enables digital transformation, which in turn enhances employee agility, but this pathway is strengthened by institutional support. Theoretical contributions, practical implications for managers and policy makers, and future research directions are discussed.