Title: Staggered Elections And Growing Democracy In Nigeria: Southwest Experience
Authors: ANIOBI, Chiemeriwo Sunday, AKINSANMI Fatima Jummai Shuwai
Volume: 10
Issue: 5
Pages: 267-274
Publication Date: 2026/05/28
Abstract:
Since the return of Nigeria to democratic governance in 1999, evidence of democratic growth has been noted. Staggered elections are among them. It has strengthened the electoral process, providing the framework for development of democracy in Nigeria. North-Central, South-East, South-South and South-West are the geo-political zones that are experiencing off-circle elections at gubernatorial level in Nigeria. Kogi state in the North-Central, Anambra and Imo states in the South-East, Edo and Bayelsa states experience it in the South-South while Ekiti, Ondo and Osun go through it in the South-West. Empirical data was collected from a sample size of 2,310 respondents from three states of Ekiti, Ondo and Osun in South West Nigeria. Employing a mixed-method design, data were collected from 384 respondents with the aid of questionnaire and 20 interview participants to explore issues related to federal interference, voter psychology, media influence, and structural challenges faced by opposition and independent candidates in staggered elections. The findings revealed that a significant majority of respondents, approximately 73%, believe that federal government agencies, including INEC and security forces, influence the outcome of staggered elections. This perception was supported by a high mean score of 3.22 and was found to be statistically significant p ? 0.05. Confidence in INEC's independence was notably low, with a mean score of 2.29, highlighting a critical trust deficit among voters. The study also confirmed the presence of the bandwagon effect in voter behavior, with respondents indicating a tendency to support dominant or previously victorious parties. This trend was reinforced by media narratives and resulted in a mean score of 3.15 for the belief that voters align with the majority to avoid wasting their votes. Media bias and social media amplification were also significant contributors to this psychological influence. Furthermore, opposition and independent candidates were reported to face multiple disadvantages, including lack of funding (mean score of 3.19), exclusion from media debates mean score of 3.16, and intimidation, all statistically significant at p ? 0.05. Qualitative interviews reinforced these findings, with participants narrating experiences of electoral violence, vote buying, and manipulation. The study concludes that staggered elections, under the current political structure, intensify systemic inequalities and suppress genuine political competition. It recommends urgent reforms to ensure INEC's independence, regulate the role of federal security forces in elections, promote equitable media access, and support strong and viral opposition to safeguard the democratic governance in Nigeria.