Title: Green Electricity Decisions of Manufacturing SMEs in Southern Vietnam under Peak-Hour Tariff Reform
Authors: Dat Le Minh, Ha Nguyen Manh
Volume: 10
Issue: 6
Pages: 26-30
Publication Date: 2026/06/28
Abstract:
Vietnam's 2025 restructuring of peak-hour electricity tariffs-shifting from a split daytime-evening window to an evening-only block (17:30-22:30)-may have altered the economics of rooftop solar, the main green electricity option for manufacturing SMEs. This conceptual paper develops testable propositions; quantitative scenarios serve only as illustrative anchors under stated assumptions, not econometric findings. It is, to our knowledge, the first to examine concurrent intermediary-policy disruption in a rooftop solar market, where third-party developers who mediate adoption through PPA contracts are themselves destabilized by the policy change they transmit. Drawing on secondary policy data, industry reports, and an integrated Prospect Theory-Institutional Theory lens, the paper advances six propositions: five behavioral propositions across four SME segments (contract-locked, self-invested, prospective adopters, and operationally differentiated factories), plus an institutional proposition contrasting export-oriented (CBAM-pressured) and domestically focused SMEs. The analysis highlights a possible policy tension between the systemic rationale for tariff reform and its potential to weaken the rooftop-solar business case and focuses on southern Vietnam, where industrial-park density and solar irradiance are highest.