Title: Analysis of Political Defection and the Prospect of Democratic Stability in Nigeria: A Study of Oyo Metropolis
Authors: Ibraheem Adewale ADEFABI
Babatunde Olawale OGUNSOLA
Bolaji Olumuyiwa OMITOLA
Adebowale Idowu ADEYEYE
& Olumide OMODUNBI.
Volume: 10
Issue: 7
Pages: 286-294
Publication Date: 2026/07/28
Abstract:
Political defection has emerged as one of the most corrosive and destabilising tendencies in Nigeria's democratic trajectory since the return to civilian rule in 1999. Despite its prevalence across all tiers of government, the phenomenon remains insufficiently interrogated at the sub-national and grassroots levels. This study investigates the causes, consequences, and possible mitigation of political defection in Oyo Metropolis, comprising Afijio, Atiba, Oyo East, and Oyo West Local Government Areas of Oyo State, Nigeria, with a focus on its implications for democratic stability. Adopting a descriptive survey research design and quantitative methodology, the study drew on a structured questionnaire administered to 400 respondents selected through stratified random sampling. Respondents included political party members, community leaders, and politically informed citizens. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, specifically simple percentages and mean scores. Findings reveal that political defection in Oyo Metropolis is predominantly driven by alignment with ruling parties for political advantage (90%), party crises and internal conflicts (90%), personal ambition (85%), and lack of reward for party loyalty (85%). The study further establishes that frequent defection significantly undermines democratic stability by eroding voters' confidence and trust in democratic institutions (90%), encouraging opportunistic politics (90%), weakening party cohesion (95%), and reducing accountability among elected officials. With respect to mitigation, respondents overwhelmingly endorsed strengthening internal party democracy (95%), promoting transparency in party leadership (95%), and intensifying civic education (95%) as priority interventions. The study concludes that political defection constitutes a threat to Nigeria's democratic consolidation thus, recommending a comprehensive response including legal reform, ideological reorientation of parties, and institutional strengthening at the grassroots level.