Title: Speculation or Settlement? The Impact of Macroeconomic Drivers and Regulatory Constraints on Crypto-Asset Demand in Southeast Asia
Authors: Tran Manh Phu
Nguyen Manh Ha
Volume: 10
Issue: 8
Pages: 80-88
Publication Date: 2026/08/28
Abstract:
Cross-country studies of crypto-asset adoption measure participation with pooled composites that combine economically distinct behaviours. Ownership rates, application downloads and aggregate transaction values each treat a household holding a token in expectation of price appreciation and a household remitting value across a border as instances of the same phenomenon. Individual-level evidence indicates that they are not. This paper constructs a monthly, economy-level index of behavioural orientation for six Southeast Asian economies over 2018 to 2026, defined as the speculative share of a language-matched, anchor-normalized basket of search queries and validated against on-chain adoption sub-indices and survey-based motive shares. The index is then related to remittance dependence, monetary instability and the regulatory treatment of crypto assets as a means of payment, with economy and month fixed effects throughout. Because regulatory status seldom varies within an economy, identification rests on interactions with time-varying conditions, not on the level of that status. The share of variance absorbed by time effects alone is reported, since recent evidence suggests that small open economies may largely track the global crypto cycle instead of diverging with domestic conditions. The estimates indicate that common time variation accounts for the larger part of the movement in orientation, that remittance dependence and nominal depreciation are associated with a lower speculative share, and that composition in economies prohibiting crypto assets as a means of payment co-moves more strongly with the global cycle.